Hello everyone. Like Judith, I will be discussing the television industry; however, my focus will be on a specific sub-sector within the industry: the anime industry, where my interests lie. I believe that this industry is worth discussing, as it certainly exhibits the principles we’ve discussed.
1. Uncertain Demand (Nobody knows)
Every time a new season in television broadcasting draws near, fans on the Internet eagerly post their insights on the upcoming line-up, rating the shows – based on synopses, teasers and/or familiarity with previous source material, if any (e.g. manga) – as “must watch,” “unsure,” “not watching” or something along those lines. However, these insights are hardly indicative to producers as to whether new series will be successful. It is only when these series actually start broadcasting that the people behind the anime industry get an idea of how they are faring. A show could look or sound good on paper or on a trailer, but may actually be worse, and vice-versa, rendering market research and demand forecasting quite ineffective.
Another insight I came up with regarding this principle is that popularity doesn’t always translate to good ratings. One concrete example is Fullmetal Alchemist: Brotherhood, the new anime of the immensely popular series, Fullmetal Alchemist. The manga and the first anime were apparently quite a hit inside and outside Japan, judging by the fact that the manga constantly ranks quite highly on the New York Times’ best-selling manga list (see it here), and that the first anime (broadcast in 2003) was, in 2005 (and, I think, 2006 as well), ranked as the best anime of all time (read it here). Thus, when news of a more manga-faithful adaptation came out in early 2009, expectations from producers and fans alike were quite high. I’m sure that Bones, the studio behind FMA, expected the anime to be a hit, and fans expected that the series would be very good.
Reactions from fans have been mixed, but it seems that many people do enjoy the new anime a lot. However, recently, some people compiled the ratings for FMA, and they have been inconsistent – there are marked highs and lows, but the ratings don’t look very good. You can take a look at it here (in graph form) and here. For an adaptation that has a following inside and outside Japan, the ratings are surprisingly low. Granted, anime being – ironically – not quite “cool” or “awesome” in Japan (since it pretty much caters to a niche), high ratings are unexpected, but the fact that the ratings seem to be dropping. There could be other reasons for the poor ratings, such as the timeslot and online viewing, but this does not look good for the future of FMA: Brotherhood. As a big fan, I personally hope that it doesn’t get canceled! Anyway, this just illustrates the “nobody knows” property quite perfectly – if we are to go by ratings, FMA: Brotherhood doesn’t seem to be the big hit that producers expected it to be.
2. Creative Workers Care about Their Product (Art for Art’s Sake)
It’s hard to discern the true motivations of people, but it’s fairly safe to say that most people involved in the anime industry care a great deal about how the anime series will turn out. A good example that I can think of is Kyoto Animation, which produced phenomenally popular anime such as The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya, Lucky Star and K-On! This animation studio is unafraid to take risks, even though such gambles could potentially hurt ratings. For instance, Haruhi was known for its quirkiness – episodes were aired in a jumbled chronology that still made sense somehow, and in an even bigger gamble, the new season featured the infamous Endless Eight, eight episodes about a time loop. So basically, viewers were treated to the same happenings over and over again – the exact same events (with only subtle differences such as the animation). This latest move led to some fan dissatisfaction, which apparently led to some apologizing from Kyoto Animation. Regardless of what people say (opinions are divided between it being a bad move, and it being a stroke of genius), you’ve got to admit that this was one bold move, showing that this studio can afford to have ratings suffer. However, one thing that this studio can’t allow to suffer is the animation quality of its work, as it are known for high-quality animation. In fact, fans noted that during the Endless Eight episodes, the same events may have been happening, but frames were not reused. (Also, the scenes were redubbed for each episode!)
Contrasting this example, however, is the case of Code Geass. The second season of this anime was noted by some critics for the decline in the quality of the plot, leading some to describe the series as a “trainwreck” (I enjoyed the show, though). Fans pinpointed executive meddling – the first season aired on a late-night timeslot, but since the second season was to be aired on Sunday afternoons, the new season was expected to draw in new viewers. Thus, the director had to change the plot and start from scratch, working with the assumption that some viewers would not have been familiar with the previous season and that some scenes had to be toned down. This is considered by fans to be a sad case of compromising what might have been a good plot for ratings.
3. Requiring Diverse Skills (Motley Crew)
An anime series is a team effort; to illustrate, here are the staff for FMA: Brotherhood. Coordination and cooperation is highly required to produce an anime. For instance, if the anime is based on some other source material, the producer, director and script writer/s have to coordinate with the original creator to make sure that the adaptation is satisfactory enough to him/her, and to ensure a smooth adaptation. The “right” voice actors have to be hired; that is, the casting director has to make sure that the voices fit the characters (this is usually based on the creator’s/director’s interpretation of how the characters will sound like). Animators must check the quality of their animation. Even selecting the theme songs for an anime is a decision that shouldn’t be taken lightly, as directors usually choose songs whose lyrics are consistent with the theme of the anime.
One illustration of this property is when the production manager of the anime Darker than Black ran away with the script (read it here in English, and here in Japanese). This unexpected happening was speculated to be the reason why the series was given a confusing, ambiguous ending. We see here that without coordination/a harmonious relationship within the team, production could fall into disarray.
4. Differentiated Products (Infinite Variety)
As with other creative industries, this is pretty much self-explanatory, as seen by the number of anime series that have been released. Although some anime may seem to be similar in terms of plot or genre, you can’t expect two series to be exactly the same, no matter how much you think that one series may be ripping off another.
5. Vertically Differentiated Skills (A List/B List)
Although there are no formal standards on what constitutes an A-list or a B-list anime, it is evident that some series are forecasted/expected to be “bigger” or “more popular” than others. Even fans themselves speculate on what they think will be the biggest anime of the season, what will be the most underrated and more. Also, adaptations of shonen manga such as Naruto, Bleach and One Piece seem to be the most mainstream – and thus bankable – anime right now, which suggests that executives would be more inclined to prolong the series (to, uh, milk it for its worth).
Also, I think that this property can be seen among seiyuu (voice actors). Some seiyuu, being more popular or appealing to fans, seem to be more bankable than others. Aya Hirano, for instance, has been quite prolific as of late. And of course, there are the veteran seiyuu – Koyasu Takehito and Kikuko Inoue, to name a few. Casting “big-time” (i.e. popular, prolific and reputed) seiyuu tends to improve the image of a series in the eyes of some fans. Some fans are even known to watch some series for the good voice acting!
6. Time is of the Essence (Time Flies)
With the exception of some anime (usually family-friendly/children’s series or those targeting a wide age range – usually the mainstream anime), anime is usually aired at late-night timeslots. For other TV shows, this would probably spell disaster, as 1 am or 2 am would equate to the graveyard shift for television. For most anime series, it’s quite different, as this would spell higher ratings (high for anime being around 2-4%, if I’m not mistaken). This is because anime caters to a niche market, and Japanese who enjoy anime usually get home quite late from work, or are busy with other things during the day. Ironically, fans have said that the Sunday, 5 pm timeslot does not bode well for anime, even though expected hits such as Code Geass, Gundam 00 season 2 and FMA: Brotherhood were assigned here because it’s a primetime slot. Fans theorize that this is because during this time, people are just getting home, or have just gotten home from work or whatever commitments they have.
7. Durable Products, Durable Rents (Ars Longa)
Copyrights, trademarks and licenses naturally come with the anime industry. The anime industry earns money not only via on-air broadcasting – in fact, given the fact that anime series do not usually rate high in Japan, I doubt that the industry would survive with broadcasting revenues alone – but also by licensing anime for broadcast and/or dubbing in other countries. FMA: Brotherhood, I’m sure, has been earning a lot of licensing revenues, as Animax Asia, Funimation and a local TV station in my country, among others, have acquired the rights to broadcast the series (even though the series hasn’t even ended!) internationally.
